Estimation of UAE population using Bayesian Theorem Research Paper

Estimation of UAE population using Bayesian Theorem - Research Paper Example A common use to which this theory has been put to is the development of time series forecasts for populations. In this case, this theory will be used to analyze the population data for United Arab Emirates. In most instances, the use of Bayesian theory is based on its mathematical framework ability that is able to provide inference on matters using probability (Hoff 116). In this project, the use of a Bayesian approach is adopted since through it the uncertainties that may exist in the model, data or even model parameters are integrated coherently in a consistent manner thus, allowing for easy inference (Gelman 75). The framework for this analysis will entail the adoption of a methodology for a time series forecasting that shall include stochastic volatility and autoregressive models fitted into historical timeline data about the population of UAE. Most instances that entail forecasting of population data apply a frequentist/classical approach, in which case, the Bayesian model offer s the best flexibility by its ability to specify uncertainties upon which forecasting can be performed (Ruggeri, Michael & Insua 80). Principles of Bayes Law Bayes theorem otherwise known as the Bayes law tries to express how the degree at which one believes in a subjective matter should change to be in line with evidence; this is known as the Bayesian inference. This theory was further developed by Laplace and got it published later on in the 1800s. The aim of this theory is to measure the extent of belief. Using this theory, the belief is either confirmed or otherwise based on the evidence collected. Hence, there is the initial belief or the prior that can be denoted by P (A) and then there is the evidence collected or the posterior denoted as P (B) and there is the quotient denoted as P(B/A) or P(B) which it shows how B supports the belief A (Leonard & John 69). The main assumptions made in the Bayes theorem are: Tests are not events, for example there is a difference between a m alaria tests and actually having malaria, the test is different from the event. It is believed that tests are flawed and hence can be challenged; they can detect things that don’t exist which are called a false positive, and miss things that exist; referred to as a false negative. The false positives skew the results; there is a high likelihood that the positive results are incorrect. Natural numbers are preferred over percentages. In summary, the Bayes theory gives the probability of an event given the test probabilities (Grover 120). A review of approaches to population projections The application of certain simple criteria can enable the obtaining of macro-level methods of population projection and its typologies. This may entail the use of simple extrapolations of the growth rates or size of the population, uncertainty approach and the methodology of the method. The estimation of the dimensionality of populations in the simplest forms always utilizes extrapolations while the uncertainty approach may be ignored or quantified by the use of probabilities. The Bayesian model utilizes both the extrapolation and time series analysis in the determination of end results for stochastic projections (Koch 41). The UAE population According to the UAE Department of Statistics (uaestatistics.gov.ae), the following figures were obtained from the census that was done in the years between 1975 and 2005. Year Total no. of Expatriates Total no. of Citizens 1975 356,343 201,544 1980 751,555

Violence in the workplace(hospital nursing department)plan of action Essay

Violence in the workplace(hospital nursing department)plan of action - Essay Example The proposed program to respond to the issue of workplace violence in nursing, workshop will be conducted among the nursing staff. There are four main components of the interventions: assessment, program development, implementation and evaluation. The whole program will consist of three months for assessment and dry runs, twelve sessions during a period of six months and three months for the evaluation of the program. Successful outcomes for the intervention will be established at 50% decrease in reported cases of violent behavior among nursing staff and satisfaction rating of 75% from participants. Assessment will determine were conflicts or violence occurs between nursing staff. The dry-runs will be evaluated as they are completed and will serve as reinforcement to workshop strategies. The program development will involve nursing managers, human resource development consultants and staff representatives. The implementation of the programs will be initiated with a series of three work shop sessions with eight to ten participants. Participants will be chosen at random among the population defined as most vulnerable or susceptible to conflicts that led to violence. The issue of violence either against or by nursing professionals has a considerable impact to society not just health care. Current legislation emphasizes the responsibility of administrators and managers to create safe and secure working environments. According to the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) (2002), the safety and well-being of nursing professionals directly affects the quality, delivery and value of health services. Though the workplace safety statutes have been in place to address the issue in the industry, the NIOSH (2002) saw it fit to develop specific legislation for the nursing profession in consideration of th professional exposure to risk, stress and violence. Case in point:

Foucault Questions Essay Example for Free

Foucault Questions Essay What are the limitations? 2. What distinctions can be made between the ordering and controlling of leprosy and the plague? 3. What does Foucault mean by â€Å"rituals of exclusion† and â€Å"†disciplinary projects†? 4. How does the panoptic mechanism differ from a dungeon? What are the principal characteristics of each? What are the goals of each? 5. What importance does Foucault attribute to â€Å"visibility†? What role do visibility and invisibility play in panoptic structures of power? . Foucault states, â€Å"The plague-stricken town, the panoptic establishment – the differences are important. † What are those differences and how are they important? 7. In describing Panopticism, Foucault is meticulous in tracing the historical evolution of the panopticon as a disciplinary mechanism. What is his purpose in doing so? Why is he so careful? 8. Outline the major historical events Foucault cites. With what example(s) does Foucault begin? With what does he end? 9. What does Foucault mean when he says that disciplinary projects moved from the margins of society to the center? What is meant by â€Å"margin†? What is meant by â€Å"center†? What is the significance of this transition of discipline from the margins to the center? 10. What does Foucault mean when he says that societies of antiquity were â€Å"societies of spectacle† and modern societies are â€Å"societies of surveillance†? What are the differences? What historical events created such differences?

Excessive Dependence on Homework in American Schools Essays -- Teachin

Excessive Dependence on Homework in American Schools "I didn’t feel [stressed] until I was in my 30’s. It hurts my feelings that my daughter feels that way at eleven" (Ratnesar 313). This statement describes the intense issue facing the American Education System today. More and more students are spending a lot of out of school time on enormous amounts of homework. The overabundance of homework is putting pressure on the students, along with their parents. Our nation has steadily focused on after school studying to the point of possible exhaustion. In this paper, I will attempt to explain how educators are relying on homework as the major form of education, and how the amounts are too demanding on the students. The emphasis on homework has slowly escalated since the launch of Sputnik in the 1950’s (Ratnesar 313). "Sputnik" was a Russian satellite sent into outer space in 1957. The Russians, not Americans, were the first nation to send a satellite into orbit. This caused a nationwide frenzy. Law-makers were inclined to focus on math and science because of the threat of soviet "soviet wiz kids" (Ratnesar 313). As the 1970’s approached homework declined once again, but soon we emphasized it to its highest level of importance. According to research done by the University of Michigan, elementary school students in 1981 spent forty-four minutes a week on homework. Sixteen years later 9-12 year olds had an increase of almost two more hours a week (Ratnesar 313). A 1983 government report, A Nation at Risk, caught the attention of the American Education System. The article explained the failings of the American school. It explained how education is declining, and teachers need to get tough on their students again. This prompted... ...ould be a sufficient amount, increasing 10 minutes each year, beginning in the first grade (Cooper 317). After studying the issue of homework, and the teacher’s influence upon it, I’ve come to realize homework may be overused in today’s educational system. I feel teachers are depending too much on outside education and not enough on in-class learning. Also, I believe the United States Government needs to develop a "homework standard". Educators in general need to come together and encourage students to learn in the classroom, and spend less time out of school doing countless hours of busy work. Teachers must look at the best interests of the students and base learning on communication in the classroom. Works Cited Considine, Jeana "The Homework Ate My Family" Cooper, Harris "The Homework Ate My Family" Ratnesar, Romesh "The Homework Ate My Family"

Pet food recall Essay

A recent recall across the United States and Canada has pet owners in frenzy. More than 60 million cans and pouches of pet food have been recalled as they have been linked to 10 cat and 6 dog deaths recently. The manufacturer sells food under 95 different brands, including Wal-Mart, Iams, and Safeway. As of yet the specific ingredient linked to the pet deaths has not been determined. Speculation links the liver failure of the cats to a wheat gluten ingredient. The FDA said that wheat gluten itself would not cause liver failure, but if it was contaminated with metal or mold toxins it could cause liver damage. The chief executive of menu foods, Paul Henderson issued a statement saying, â€Å"Our hearts go out to all of the pet owners across Canada, the United States and Mexico for any losses they experience and certainly for the worry this incident may be causing† (â€Å"Company behind pet†, 2007). Pet owner’s expectations when buying pet food are to keep their pets happy, healthy, and well fed. Many of the products recalled were manufactured under the best pet food names in the industry. Pet owner Chris Wood says â€Å"We love our pets just like children. They are not careful enough with the ingredients they put in pet food. That’s scary† (Molina, 2007). Pet’s are companions that owner’s have a deep responsibility to care for. Implications caused by this recall include worry for one’s pet, having to find a new brand of food not manufactured by menu foods, and in the worse case scenario losing one’s pet to liver failure. The worry alone is taking time and energy from pet owners across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Pet owners are not only returning the recalled food but are taken precautions that cost a lot of money to ensure the safety and well-being of their pets. A veterinarian at the Animal Medical Center on the East Side of Manhattan, Dr. Ann Hohenhaus, said one cat died there over the weekend of kidney failure linked to the recalled food. Hohenhaus said the Animal Medical Center has tested 143 animals for renal failure since worried pet owners started taking their cats and dogs in for blood and urine tests on Saturday (March 18th, 2007)†(Mathews , 2007). Retailers are taking all measures to reassure pet owners. After the recall â€Å"PetSmart general manager Gary Brown said, ‘Everything on our shelves is 100 percent safe for your pet’†(Molina, 2007). Petsmart is offering a full refund on all food purchased between December 3-March 6. A Long Island family whose two year old bull mastiff, Princess, died as a result of the recall are suing Menu Foods. Princess ate nothing but Nutro Foods all of her life and passed away from liver failure. The family is absolutely devastated by their loss. The family filed a lawsuit â€Å"Wednesday against Nutro and manufacturer Menu Foods. The lawsuit, filed in state Supreme Court in Nassau County, seeks unspecified compensatory and punitive damages, said Bobb’s attorney, Kenneth Mollins†(Mathews, 2007). Quite often consumers put much research and time into products they purchase. When a consumer makes a purchase they assumed the manufacturer is offering a product that will be satisfactory and meet standards. Menu foods did switch to a new supplier for wheat gluten. As of the March 6, 2007 issued recall Mend Foods has once again changed its wheat gluten supply and is once again stocking shelves with premium pet food. Menu Foods expects losses of 24-60 million dollars for this recall and lawsuits that will prevail as a result of the contaminated pet food.

Student s Culture And Education - 871 Words

[Multicultural teachers]†¦recognize when some students are not learning, reach out to them, and try different pedagogical strategies to help them learn. They do not allow students to sit in their classroom without being engaged with the content. They do not ignore the students who are withdrawn, depressed, or resistant to classroom work. They do everything they can to help students see themselves as learners and value learning. (p.378) It is important as an educator to connect the curriculum to the student’s culture and to real world experiences because this will aid students in learning. Ladson-Billings (1995) gives an excellent example of how students from different cultures may look at a mathematics question differently. In short, the students were given a math problem asking would it be more efficient for an adult to buy a monthly pass or to pay everyday for the month. Well the African American students brought up a good point. They asked how many jobs the person i s working whereas the dominant culture probably assumed that the adult was working one job. This shows the importance of knowing the different cultures your students come from. Gollnick Chinn (2006) also points out that â€Å"teaching must start from the students’ life experiences, not the teacher’s life experiences.† Teachers must be mindful that they may have not grown up like their students have. Mathematics should also be taught democratically. I don’t believe that a teacher should stand in front of theShow MoreRelatedThe Evolution Of Higher Education1469 Words   |  6 PagesHigher Education Higher education has continued to evolve just as society has in its accessibility and purpose in surviving its students. In Mark Edmundson’s On the uses of a liberal education: 1. as lite entertainment for bored college students, he discusses how consumer culture has turned every aspect of higher education into a buyer’s market which students feed into. William Deresiewicz’s The Neoliberal Arts: How college sold its should to the market expands on this idea from the 90’s throughRead MoreMulticultural Education And Educational Education770 Words   |  4 Pagesmulticultural education is defined in sociopolitical context and relates to comprehension of school reform. Namely, the multicultural education works in reforming schools and providing an equal and excellent education for everyone. Likewise, the author gave a definition of multicultural education based on her experience surrounding education environment. She divides multicultural education into sev en basic characteristics: antiracist education, basic education, important for all students, pervasiveRead MoreReflective Journal : The It s Not The Culture Of Poverty Essay1318 Words   |  6 PagesJournal #1 In the â€Å"It s Not the Culture of Poverty, It s the Poverty of Culture: The Problem with Teacher Education†, Ladson-Billings states that the shortcomings of the teacher education that educators receive when working with students. The problem is that teacher education is filled with certain perceptions and thoughts about the students beforehand and that can affect how they see and treat them in the classroom. One of the major points within the article is how culture has become the answerRead MoreBilingual Education : The Problems1695 Words   |  7 PagesBilingual education is a highly-debated subject in America and in many other countries. Many people are quick to point out problems produced by bilingual education. 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(Cliff Notes) On the other hand, multicultural education is a lifetimeRead MoreThe Current State Of The Cambodian Traditional Music Revival And The Large Impact Of Cultural Music Education1539 Words   |  7 Pagesthe current state of the Cambodian traditional music revival and the large impact of cultural music education, it fails to see the external benefits of this music that promotes â€Å"a culture of peace, global citizenship, and appreciation of cultural diversity and its contribution to sustainable development†.29 This cultural benefit is one of the biggest answers to the question of why this music education and the survival of traditional music is important. Despite the lack of coverage this element receives

Essay Animal Testing - 730 Words

Kenzi Winnegrad Professor Hojem English 2 October 2017 Exploratory Essay: Animal Testing Animal testing is an extremely controversial topic because it deals with delicate matters and matters of humanity. Animal testing is intended to help consumers buy safe and healthy products, but they are torturing innocent animals by doing so. People that are in favor of animal testing usually are also advocates for medical research and progress, though there have been other proven methods of research. But they don’t think of it as tormenting and killing animals. On the other hand, a lot of people are compassionate about animals and think that testing on them is inhumane. These advocates of the animals think that an animal’s safety should be put†¦show more content†¦The author states that biologically, animals and people are very different. Additionally, â€Å"the biological differences between humans and animals make it possible for a chemical or substance to be both safe for animals yet toxic to humans† (Miley, â€Å"Cons Against Animal Testingâ € ). There is the legal aspect of the topic to consider also. Many people think that the Animal Welfare Act legally protects animals and that they often are not harmed during testing. But, the author’s thoughts may suggest otherwise. The Animal Welfare Act protects pets like dogs and cats, however it provides no protection for birds, mice, and rats. These birds, mice, and rats â€Å"make up more than 90 percent of all laboratory animals† (Miley, â€Å"Cons Against Animal Testing†). To not be covered by this Animal Welfare Act means that they legally â€Å"are subjected to painful medical procedures and conditions without anesthesia or other forms of pain relief† (Miley, â€Å"Cons Against Animal Testing†). This author’s ideas directly conflicts with the ideas in my first source. My last source I found doesn’t really favor either side of the argument. The author provides information about alternatives to animal testing. The auth or believes that new technology could put forward a better way of testing than using animals. The source offers thorough descriptions of new alternative testing modes, for example, â€Å"the human cell-based in vitro† (â€Å"Alternatives to Animal Testing†), whichShow MoreRelated Animal testing Essay1964 Words   |  8 Pagescomes to animals and their rights, there is a definite line between our needs and our taking advantage of those species that we consider inferior. As long as man has existed he has been carnivorous, and the same holds true for many other species of animals. Animals are a necessity to humans for survival, whether it be for food, clothing, etc. However, the unnecessary torture of animals through testing is not a necessity for human survival. When it comes to the needless torture of animals that we claimRead MoreEssay on Animal Testing1728 Words   |  7 Pagesâ€Å"twenty-five million and 30 million† animals are exploited in experiments; â⠂¬Å"half are only used through education† (Donna 7). â€Å"A 40% is applied in basic research, the 26% for drug development, a 20% are examined for products, and the 14% that is left is applied on education and miscellaneous† (Donna 5). The inhumane cruelty affects the innocent creatures. Animals should only be used for education, and research purposes. Therefore, regulations must increase on animal protection. Increasing policiesRead MoreEssay on Animal Testing798 Words   |  4 PagesEvery year, animals are subjected to cruel and unnecessary experimentation. According to the USDA, â€Å"between 1990-1997 research labs registered with the USDA reported killing at least 12,895,885 dogs, cats, primates, guinea pigs, hamsters, rabbits, bears, armadillos, squirrels, wild rodents and other species. This doesnt include non USDA registered labs† (â€Å"Wikianswers†). Lab animals are cut up and tortured to death all in the name of science. How can we as fellow animal species continue to allowRead More Animal testing Essay865 Words   |  4 PagesUse of animals for Laboratory Testing There has been an on going debate on whether to use animals for laboratory testing. There are people now saying the use of animals in laboratory testing is not necessary and there are other alternatives. Many of these people claim the tests that are performed on the animals are not particularly valid. On the other hand, others claim that laboratory testing has been depended on animals to achieve medical advances. Whether or not the use of animals in laboratoryRead More Animal Testing Essay710 Words   |  3 Pagesanimal testing â€Å"Beauty without cruelty† is the outcry that can be heard from animal right activists around the world. The FDA does not require companies to perform tests on animals but if the cosmetic product contains chemicals that can be seen as toxins, testing becomes a necessity. There are currently thirteen safety tests that are performed on animals. Anti-testing activists deem these unnecessary and consider them to be cruel. â€Å"Fourteen million animals are used currently in the U.SRead MoreEssay on Animal Testing676 Words   |  3 PagesAnimal Testing In the 1880’s, Louis Pasteur conducted one of the most unpleasant series of animal experiments in the history of the fight against infectious disease. Unable to see the organism that causes rabies with the microscopes available, he convinced a skeptical medical community of the microorganism’s existence and also the possibility of vaccinating against it. He did this by doing work on rabbits and dogs. In 1885, after much heart searching, he tried out his rabies vaccine on aRead MoreEssay on Animal Testing1383 Words   |  6 Pagesand Behavior Animal testing is not a problem in today’s society because it is beneficial to humans. It seems unethical to put animals through such pain and torture, but if we stopped it completely there would be a large amount of human lives lost. How could this be? The further advancements in medical and technological science is inevitable. Therefore, if the testing must be done to learn more about the brain and body, which species (animals or man) seems expendable for such testing. The real questionRead MoreAnimal Testing and Mistreatment of Animals Essay554 Words   |  3 PagesAnimal research has played a major role in developing medications and treatments available to humans today, without animals, doctors would not be able to introduce these medications and treatments without initially testing them for safety. My wife has a son who was born without the pulmonary artery and because of animal research; he was provided another outlet for survival. In his first five days of life, he underwent surgery. It was the longest days of her life as she reminiscences, for twelveRead MoreAnimal Testing Is Wrong Essay1603 Words   |  7 PagesAnimal testing has been around since the third and fourth centuries BC, when it was performed by Greek philosopher-physicians. However, it is unknown when people began to question this process. In today’s society, the idea of testing products on animals has become more and more controversial with numerous groups being created and becoming even more vocal. While people will decide for themselves where they stand in this argument, I would hope that most would agree that animal abuse is wrong. So,Read More Animal Testing Essay1729 Words   |  7 Pages Animal Testing nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;More and more animals are being taken form their natural habitats and tested on every year. Researchers, scientists, and companies just trying to make new products are using animals to further their experiments. If animal testing continues to happen at this rate then their will be no animals left to use for food, study, or even for simple amusement. When the animals are being taken form their natural environments it harms